Durzblog

My picks for the top seeds are UNC, Pitt, Louisville and Memphis as #1 seeds and Connecticut, Duke, Oklahoma and Michigan State as the # 2's...Look for Uconn to be paired with Memphis out in the West Regional. Uconn might have a better resume of the two, but Memphis has been the hotter team, the Huskies are only 4-3 since they lost Jerome Dyson and quite frankly the committee is probably not in love with giving one league three #1 seeds. Louisville deserves the number one seed more than anyone and Pitt is a no brainer as well. I suppose Duke could slide in for Memphis with a win today, but I would be very surprised.

On the bubble:

28 automatic bids have been awarded and four more auto bids will be won today, and according to ESPN there are 30 locks or just about locks in total. That leaves four spots for about 10 candidates, and it could be three if Tennessee loses to Mississippi State today

I believe Minnesota is in -- so that will leave three, (maybe two, spots) for some very decent candidates...Don't be surprised to see Arizona's name pop up this evening as the last team in. Creighton, San Diego State, Providence and Auburn simply have not done enough to warrant a dance ticket, but stranger things have happened. Here is my pool of bubble boys -- fighting for the last few spots. I predict that at least two of these programs will be left out:

Arizona [19-13 (9-9), RPI: 62, SOS: 36] They appeared in 24 consecutive NCAA tournaments since 1985, the longest active streak in the country and second-longest in NCAA history.

Florida [23-10 (9-7), RPI: 52, SOS: 94] The Gators have put themselves in danger of missing the NCAA tournament for the second straight time, after winning back-to-back national championships in 2006-07.

Saint Mary's [26-6 (10-4), RPI: 48, SOS: 159] The Gaels only have two victories over RPI top-50 opponents, and have a very weak resume -- but a lofty RPI keeps them in the picture. They lost to Gonzaga three times -- including a 83-58 blowout defeat in the finals of the WCC tournament.

Penn State [22-11 (10-8), RPI: 70, SOS: 119] PSU's 10-8 finish in Big Ten play and its six victories over RPI top-50 opponents could be enough to get an invite, IF the committee decides that the relatively soft B10 is worthy of 8 invites -- it would be the most of any conference.

Maryland [20-13 (7-9), RPI: 54, SOS: 22] The Terps finished 7-9 in ACC play after losing at Virginia 68-63 in its regular-season finale. However, Maryland some good wins, including, North Carolina at home and Michigan State and Wake Forest on neutral courts. They are currently playing with the look of a tournament team, a team that could win a game or two if they get in.